Will the US and Iran announce a formal framework agreement before July 15, 2026?

Outcome: YES

How this forecast is settled

Will the US and Iran officially announce a framework agreement before July 15? Ongoing talks and an existing roadmap make a formal announcement possible within that timeframe.

Resolution

Yes, the US and Iran officially announced a formal framework agreement prior to the deadline, signing a 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 17 June 2026.

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