Will the national average petrol pump price rise by at least 5% from its September 2 level before 11:59 PM WAT on September 15, 2026?

Outcome: YES

How this forecast is settled

Nigeria's national average petrol pump price rise by at least 5% from its September 2 level before September 15? With depot and retail prices already moving sharply higher and crude prices under renewed pressure, Yes appears likely, with moderate-to-high confidence.

Resolution

On September 2, 2026, retail fuel pump prices in Nigeria sat roughly between ₦1,210 and ₦1,345 per litre. Following multiple supply rate hikes by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and surging international crude benchmark costs due to geopolitical tensions, domestic prices shifted aggressively upward

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