Will the House of Representatives of Nigeria pass a formal resolution to suspend trade or aviation agreements with South Africa by Friday evening (May 8)?

Outcome: YES

How this forecast is settled

Will Reps move to suspend ties with South Africa? Big diplomatic actions usually take longer than public outrage cycles.

Resolution

YES, the House of Representatives passed the formal resolution, although they acted earlier than the Friday deadline.The "Motion of Urgent Public Importance," sponsored by Rep. Donald Ojogo (APC, Ondo) and Rep. Billy Osawaru (APC, Edo), was adopted during the plenary session on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The resolution officially urged the Federal Government to suspend the issuance of business permits to South African companies and review all bilateral agreements (including aviation/BASA) pending an end to the attacks

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