Will petrol sell below ₦1,000 per litre in Lagos before July 31, 2026?

Outcome: NO

How this forecast is settled

Petrol pricing in Nigeria is shaped by global crude oil prices, refinery output (including domestic supply from major facilities), exchange rate stability, and downstream distribution costs. For prices to fall below a major psychological level like ₦1,000/litre, there typically needs to be a combination of sustained FX stability, improved domestic refining supply, and reduced landing/import costs.

Resolution

No, petrol did not sell below ₦1,000 per litre in Lagos before July 31, 2026. Retail pump prices in Lagos hovered around ₦1,250 to ₦1,300 per litre, with NNPC outlets retailing at ₦1,265 per litre and ex-depot prices from key suppliers like Dangote sitting at ₦1,216 per litre near the end of July.

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